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Goldman Sachs' Andrew Tilton: China is 'a tale of two economies'
  + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldman Sachs' Andrew Tilton: China is 'a tale of two economies'Andrew Tilton of Goldman Sachs discusses China's latest GDP data and says investor sentiment has 'probably past peak bearishness' in the first quarter.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Andrew Tilton Organizations: Goldman Locations: China
Disappointing investors Tesla's inability to meet estimates and boost demand for its models has spurrred the newfound skepticism. The comments from Wood came one day after her firm purchased nearly $40 million worth of Tesla shares. A lack of investor understanding of the value of these alternative businesses and their future contribution to Tesla profits is plaguing Tesla shares, according to Corestone Capital's Will McDonough. TSLA 1Y mountain Tesla shares over the last year "Valuing Tesla as a car company is akin to valuing Amazon as a book sale company," the investor said. "There are definitely concerns in the marketplace around demand" for Tesla vehicles, said Robert W. Baird senior research analyst Ben Kallo.
Persons: Tesla, Morgan Stanley, Adam Jonas, Wedbush's Dan Ives, Ives, Michael Sansoterra, Tim Pagliara, EVs, Sansoterra, that's, CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin, Cathie Wood, Wood, Brad Gerstner, Elon Musk, Corestone Capital's Will McDonough, Robert W, Baird, Ben Kallo, We're Organizations: Elon, Silvant Capital Management, Wall, Motors, Ford, Toyota, Silvant, Ark Investment Locations: U.S, China
But with the market at an all-time high, now is probably a good time to hedge against potential downside, experts say. That's especially the case because there's an elevated degree of risk facing stocks, and the cost of some insurance measures is historically cheap. Related storiesThe S&P 500 also looks overextended on a technical basis, according to many measures. AdvertisementRosenberg Research"The definition of a stretched market is one when the S&P 500 gaps 14% or more above the 200-day trendline. Beyond extreme, in fact — back to 1928, the S&P 500 has only drifted this far above the moving average 7% of the time," Rosenberg said.
Persons: Jim Smigiel, they've, Louis Fed, Phillip Colmar, Colmar, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Steve Sosnick, we're, Smigiel, Sosnick Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Microsoft, Bank of America's, Survey, Bank of America, SEI, Fed, Louis Fed Inflation, MRB Partners, Rebels, Rosenberg Research, Interactive Brokers Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Palestine, Suez
China has been grappling with negative consumer prices for several months. No other major world economy faces deflation. China is the only major economy with negative consumer prices, dropping 0.8% year-over-year in January. China is the only major economy dealing with deflation. And China's ongoing real estate market slump has depressed the prices for household items and residences.
Persons: Organizations: Service Locations: China, Beijing
Chinese leader Xi Jinping said on New Year's Eve that the nation's economy had grown "more resilient and dynamic this year." Meanwhile, famed hedge fund manager and founder of Dallas-based Hayman Capital Kyle Bass said the country's heavily indebted property market has triggered a wave of defaults among public developers. That's a problem, given China's real estate market can account for as much as a fifth of the nation's GDP. "This is just like the U.S. financial crisis on steroids," Bass said, referring to China's default-ridden property market. The Institute of International Finance said Beijing has the policy capacity to push China's economy toward its growth potential and stuck to its above consensus forecast for 2024 growth at 5%, in a recent blog post.
Persons: Eswar Prasad, Mohamed El, Xi Jinping, there's, Paul Krugman, Krugman, Kristalina Georgieva, Hayman, Hayman Capital Kyle Bass, Bass, isn't Organizations: Future Publishing, CSI, China's National Bureau, Statistics, Allianz, International Monetary Fund, Nikkei, New York Times, Monetary Fund, Economic, IMF, Dallas, Hayman Capital, of International Finance Locations: Jiangsu, China, Nikkei Asia, U.S, Europe, tatters, Davos, Beijing
But this week, China embarked on monetary easing as it pledged to reduce the amount of liquidity that its banks are required to hold as reserves. Earlier this week, Bloomberg News, citing sources, reported that China is considering a $278 billion package to rescue its stock markets. Andrew Lapping, chief investment officer at Ranmore Fund Management , says the sharp decline in China markets is an "opportunity." "So the stock market is certainly putting much higher equity risk premium ... there are also concerns about policy direction, policy clarity ... Renewable energy: China Longyuan Power Group, China Resources Power.
Persons: Brendan Ahern, CNBC's, Andrew, Winnie Wu, Guy Spier, CNBC's Tanvir Gill, , Wu, what's, Ahern, Amundi, It's, Morgan Stanley, Michael Bloom, Evelyn Cheng Organizations: Bloomberg, Investors, Ranmore Fund Management, BofA Securities, CCP, JPMorgan, EV, UBS, Baidu, China Communications, China Construction Bank, Ping An Insurance, China Longyuan Power Group, China Resources Power Locations: China, United States, Industrials
Oil slides as Saudi price cuts counter Middle East worries
  + stars: | 2024-01-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
In an aerial view, oil storage tanks at the Enterprise Sealy Station are seen on August 28, 2023 in Sealy, Texas. Oil prices fell by more than 3% on Monday on sharp price cuts by top exporter Saudi Arabia and a rise in OPEC output, offsetting supply concerns generated by escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East. On Sunday rising supply and competition with rival producers prompted Saudi Arabia to cut the February official selling price (OSP) of its flagship Arab Light crude to Asia to the lowest level in 27 months. A Reuters survey on Friday found that OPEC oil output rose in December as increases in Iraq, Angola and Nigeria offset continuing cuts by Saudi Arabia and other members of the wider OPEC+ alliance. "However, that doesn't take into account the fact that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are undeniably rising again, which will mean limited downside."
Persons: John Evans, Tony Sycamore, Antony Blinken, Vandana Hari Organizations: Enterprise, Brent, West Texas, PVM, Reuters, West, Vanda Insights, Libya's National Oil Corporation Locations: Sealy , Texas, Saudi Arabia, Yemeni, Red, Asia, Iraq, Angola, Nigeria, OPEC, Saudi, Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon, Syria
Analyst Julian Emanuel said investors should consider snapping up stocks that Evercore ISI calls "tax loss targets." Such stocks are being sold by investors looking to realize their losses and cut their 2023 tax bill before year-end. The average analyst has a buy rating and price target implying upside of about 32%, according to LSEG. The average analyst has a buy rating on the stock with a price target reflecting upside of nearly 39%, per LSEG. In addition to holding an average buy rating, analysts polled by LSEG forecast a price target implying Corteva could rally nearly 26% over the next year.
Persons: Julian Emanuel, Emanuel, there's, Aptiv, Piper Sandler, FactSet, Alexander Potter, LSEG, OkCupid, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: ISI, Pfizer, Aptiv, CNBC Pro, Wall, LSEG Locations: Israel
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOPEC+ delay could cause bearishness in energy stocks short-term, says Again Capital's John KilduffJohn Kilduff, Again Capital founding partner, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss OPEC's meeting delay and what it means for oil stocks.
Persons: Capital's John Kilduff John Kilduff Organizations: Capital
Chartbook: Oil and gas positionsAs in previous weeks, sales in the most recent week were led by crude (-16 million barrels), especially NYMEX and ICE WTI (-11 million), with some extra sales in Brent (-5 million). Funds held a larger position of 171 million barrels in Brent, but that was in only the 28th percentile, still significantly bearish. Funds purchased 9 million barrels over the seven days ending on Nov. 14 and had purchased a total of 25 million barrels since Oct. 17. The net position had doubled to 51 million barrels (46th percentile) on Nov. 14 up from 26 million barrels (19th percentile) four weeks earlier. Related columns:- U.S. gasoline stocks add to crude oil turbulence (November 17, 2023)- U.S. oil prices slide as stocks accumulate at Cushing (November 16, 2023)- Oil traders turn bearish, daring OPEC⁺ to cut again (November 14, 2023)- Oil prices slump as fundamentals reassert themselves (November 9, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.
Persons: John Kemp, Barbara Lewis Organizations: ICE, Funds, ICE WTI, Fund, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Brent, NYMEX, Saudi Arabia, Russia, bearishness, United States, Cushing
If U.S. and Chinese growth holds up, the investment landscape will need to be redrawn too. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsBut what if peak bond bearishness is already upon us? As Societe Generale's Albert Edwards points out, once the quarterly deflator is factored in, nominal GDP growth in the third quarter was actually only 3.5%. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsEqually, U.S. stocks look expensive if high yields start to choke the economy. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing Rights(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)
Persons: Florence Lo, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Chris Iggo, Jamie McGeever, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Societe Generale's, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, of America's, HSBC, Reuters, AXA Investment, Bank of America's, Thomson Locations: Rights ORLANDO , Florida, United States, China, Atlanta, Beijing, Europe, U.S, Bank
CNBC's Jim Cramer on Thursday highlighted weakness in sectors he previously considered bullish, saying pervasive bearishness will constrain any potential market rally. Cramer said the market keeps losing "buyable groups" as formerly well-performing sectors go flat, adding that there aren't enough companies with strong prospects. To Cramer, these travel and leisure stocks are viewed as part of the "post-Covid hangover cohort." The housing bull market may also be over, Cramer said. Banks are also doing poorly as high interest rates persist, Cramer said, adding that regional banks seem especially "doomed."
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, Banks, We've, we've Locations: Wall
However, higher-for-longer rates don't always crush valuations and earnings, Bank of America strategists recently noted. In fact, the firm found that the S&P 500 had a 15% total return per year from 1985 to 2005 with inflation-adjusted rates at 3.5%, which is far above today's 2% rate. "Historically, when the indicator has been here or lower, 12m forward S&P 500 returns were positive 95% of the time (vs. 81% overall) with a median return of 21%," Subramanian wrote. The Charlotte-based firm recently raised its year-end price target for the S&P 500 to 4,600, which implies 7.5% upside. The S&P 500 is top-heavy and expensive, which Bank of America thinks makes funds following the equal-weight version of the index more compelling.
Persons: That's, Savita Subramanian, BofA's, Subramanian, Financials Organizations: Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Bank of America's, of America, SSI, Bank of, Energy Locations: Charlotte
CNBC's Jim Cramer on Friday told investors not to make any major stock moves right before a company's quarterly report. "You shouldn't try to play the earnings game, meaning don't trade stocks on the basis of what you're expecting from their quarterly numbers," Cramer said. Cramer used chipmaker Micron as an example of why it's important to wait and assess earnings before buying or selling. The company released its quarterly report earlier this week, with revenue beating Wall Street's expectations. Cramer conceded that there are some instances where one might not be able to make moves after the report.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, It's, that's Organizations: Micron
CNBC Daily Open: Long-term prospects look dim
  + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineA smattering of positive developments helped investor sentiment yesterday. According to the latest survey by the American Association of Individual Investors, which measures retail investors' sentiment for stocks over the next six months, overall bearishness climbed from 34.6% last week to 40.9%. — CNBC's Scott Schnipper contributed to this report Correction: An earlier version of this report misspelled Rick Rieder's name.
Persons: Michael Nagle, Treasurys, yield's, it's, , Brent, — CNBC's Scott Schnipper, Rick Rieder's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, . West Texas, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, AMD, American Association of, Alpha, Treasury, Federal Reserve Locations: New York
Billionaire investor Bill Gross warned the bond market is headed for a record third year of losses. "I think that bonds are headed for a third straight year of losses and that portfolios should own more pipeline MLPs," Gross said. download the app Email address By clicking ‘Sign up’, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider as well as other partner offers and accept our Terms of Service and Privacy PolicyAdvertisementAdvertisementBillionaire investor Bill Gross warned of more pain for bond investors as US fixed-income assets head for an unprecedented three-year slump. AdvertisementAdvertisementGovernment bond yields surged Thursday after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%, and signaled borrowing costs will remain higher for longer. According to Gross, "the 10 year Treasury is already priced for a 2% inflationary world."
Persons: Bill Gross, Gross Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon
Headwinds are piling up for the market heading into the final week of the month, as September lives up to its reputation as a horrible month for Wall Street. Wolfe Research's Rob Ginsberg pointed out in a note this week that the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) doesn't suggest much fear in markets. "We have a potential shutdown in Washington, as well as the UAW strike, which could potentially create some volatility in jobs data in particular." But investors heading into the final trading week of September will likely see a continuation of those losses, if history is any indication. "We could see the market experience additional weakness over the next several weeks," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.
Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, VIX, Amy Wu Silverman, Aditya Bhave, Shannon Saccocia, Saccocia, there's, RBC's Wu Silverman, what's, Goldman Sachs, Scott Rubner, Sam Stovall, Michael Bloom, Jeff Cox Organizations: Wall, Dow Jones, Reserve, Bank of America U.S, UAW, CFRA, Costco Wholesale, Nike, Chicago, Dallas Fed, New, Richmond Fed, Costco, Micron, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, BEA, Auto, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI Locations: Washington, Detroit, . Kansas, Chicago, Michigan
Investors at six large asset managers - Pictet, BNP Paribas Asset Management, Janus Henderson, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Invesco and RBC - told Reuters they have neither reduced nor added to their China weighting following recent measures to support the economy. "While the overall picture is grim, bearishness around Chinese equities may have reached a local peak and we therefore are refraining from cutting our exposure," said Dong Chen, head of Asia macroeconomic research at Pictet Wealth Management. SEEKING ALTERNATIVESOthers have meanwhile sought out opportunities in markets outside of China, but that trend is showing signs of ebbing. "With attitudes towards China currently so weak, equities valuations could be quite sensitive to signs that corporate fundamentals are starting to improve." ($1 = 7.2910 Chinese yuan renminbi)Reporting by Summer Zhen in Hong Kong and Rae Wee in Singapore; Editing by Tom Westbrook and Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Janus Henderson, J.P, Dong Chen, Chi Lo, haven't, Alex Redman, teetering, Jasmine Duan, Patrick Garvin, Summer Zhen, Rae Wee, Tom Westbrook Organizations: BNP, Asset Management, Morgan Asset Management, Invesco, RBC, Reuters, Pictet Wealth Management, HK, RBC Investment Services, Thomson Locations: China, HONG KONG, SINGAPORE, Asia, Shanghai, Pacific, India, Indonesia, Beijing, Hong Kong, Singapore
An electronic board shows Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes, at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, China October 25, 2022. "While the overall picture is grim, bearishness around Chinese equities may have reached a local peak and we therefore are refraining from cutting our exposure," said Dong Chen, head of Asia macroeconomic research at Pictet Wealth Management. SEEKING ALTERNATIVESOthers have meanwhile sought out opportunities in markets outside of China, but that trend is showing signs of ebbing. "With attitudes towards China currently so weak, equities valuations could be quite sensitive to signs that corporate fundamentals are starting to improve." ($1 = 7.2910 Chinese yuan renminbi)Reporting by Summer Zhen in Hong Kong and Rae Wee in Singapore; Editing by Tom Westbrook and Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Aly, Janus Henderson, J.P, Dong Chen, Chi Lo, haven't, Alex Redman, teetering, Jasmine Duan, Patrick Garvin, Summer Zhen, Rae Wee, Tom Westbrook Organizations: REUTERS, BNP, Asset Management, Morgan Asset Management, Invesco, RBC, Reuters, Pictet Wealth Management, HK, RBC Investment Services, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, HONG KONG, SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, India, Indonesia, Beijing, Hong Kong, Singapore
Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 98 million barrels of futures and options based on crude over the seven days ending on Sept. 5. Short positions in NYMEX WTI had been reduced to just 30 million barrels on Sept. 5 from 136 million barrels on June 27. In the last 10 shorting cycles, shorts have fallen to an average of 24 million barrels. Following their repeated extension, the cuts are set to remove a total of 245 million barrels by the end of December if implemented in full. Related columns:- Hedge funds buy U.S. crude as stocks fall (September 4, 2023)- Depleting U.S. crude inventories lift oil prices (August 31, 2023)- Prospect of strong El Niño weighs on U.S. gas prices (August 30, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.
Persons: Bing Guan, Brent, NYMEX WTI, Cushing, bullishness, John Kemp, Susan Fenton Organizations: Angeles Refinery, California Air Resources Board, OPEC ⁺, ICE, bearishness, Henry, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Angeles, California, Carson , California, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Brent, WTI, NYMEX, Chartbook, Russia, Saudi, Cushing, Oklahoma
Bullish sentiment among individual investors regarding the outlook for stocks over the next six months surged to 42% in the latest week, from 33.1% last week, and the first time the measure's been above the historical average (37.5%) since early August, according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors survey. Bearish sentiment sank to 29.6%, a four-week low, vs 34.5% last week. Neutral sentiment fell to a seven-week low of 28.2% from 32.4% last week. Bullishness also climbed in the weekly Investors Intelligence poll of financial newsletter editors and advisors earlier this week, rising to 49.3% from 43.1% last week. Bearishness rose a touch, to 21.9% from 20.8%, while those in the correction camp narrowed to 28.8% from 36.1%.
Persons: Bullishness, contrarians, — Scott Schnipper Organizations: American, of, Intelligence
If you don’t know a soul that is bullish — and I mean flat-out positive — you may need some new friends. I say I am a naked opportunist and I feel naked and alone right now in saying we might have a bunch of things that could break the bulls' way. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER .
Persons: , We’ve, sotto, Shawn Fain, Leon Trotsky, Fain, Lululemon, LULU, Robert Bradway, Amgen, Lina Khan, Khan, Trump, Estee Lauder, Morgan Stanley, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Virginia Sherwood Organizations: Federal Reserve, Softbank's Arm Holdings, United Auto Workers, UAW, Federal Trade, Activision Blizzard, Horizon Therapeutics, FTC, Apple, GE HealthCare, Disney, Bausch Health, Honeywell, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, NYSE Locations: Russian, U.S, Wells
Speculators responded by boosting their bullish Chicago soybean bets, which they have held for more than three years, and easing bearishness in corn futures. Most-active CBOT corn futures rose 1.5% during the period but stayed below $5 per bushel throughout. Last week’s rise in oilseed optimism extended to the soy products, as CBOT soybean meal futures increased more than 4% and soybean oil added 2.5%. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean futures and optionsMost-active CBOT wheat futures lost more than 4% in the week ended Aug. 29. Corn futures dropped 1.1% over the last three sessions, soybeans lost 1.7%, soymeal lost 3% and soyoil was mostly unchanged.
Persons: Lucas Jackson, soymeal, soyoil, Karen Braun, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Funds, U.S . Department of Agriculture, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Dixon , Nebraska, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Russia, Turkey, Brazil, Mato Grosso
Late Thursday, the companies announced that Coinbase had taken a minor equity stake in Circle, which includes a 50/50 revenue share of interest income going forward. "Centre will no longer exist as a stand-alone entity and Circle will remain as the issuer of USDC, bringing any Centre governance and operations responsibilities in-house." The U.S. stablecoin market has been held back by regulatory uncertainty this year, and the market cap for USDC has dropped nearly 42% since the start of the year, according to CryptoQuant. "All else is in fact not equal as [the] USDC market cap has drifted lower through 2Q23 and interest rates are subject to change." "The Circle equity stake deepens COIN's exposure to a dwindling asset class … casting doubt about the standalone business model of stablecoins."
Persons: Coinbase, they're, Alex Markgraff, JPMorgan's Kenneth Worthington, USDC, Ramsey El, Assal, They're, Dan Dolev Organizations: Wall Street, Key, Barclays, U.S ., Mizuho, PayPal Locations: U.S, Key Banc, stablecoins
Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsAn increase in gross corn shorts was the dominant theme for a third consecutive week, though funds also cut longs in the latest two weeks. Most-active CBOT corn futures had dropped 4.7% in the week ended Aug. 15. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean futures and optionsOpen interest in CBOT corn and soybean futures and options has not fluctuated much in the last couple of months. But open interest in CBOT wheat futures and options has surged 29% over the last seven weeks, directionally seasonal but more than double the recent average rate during the period. Most-active corn futures on Wednesday had hit their lowest levels since Dec. 31, 2020, though soybeans on Friday traded to their highest levels since July 31.
Persons: Daniel Acker, bearishness, ’ bullish, Wheat, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Crop, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Tiskilwa , Illinois, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois
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